緊張關頭
真個是, 天堂門口也有通住地獄的捷徑. 逼得陳雲要直接寫英文.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-15
Wan Chin: Politicians in USA are puzzled by China's two-sided tactics in the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act. Such bifurcated approach of the CCP runs this way:
1. China keeps on lobbying US senators not to pass the HK Human Rights Act, which pressures China to keep her promise to allow HK full democracy. China cracks down the protest with the outlawed police force, but China says nothing against universal suffrage in Hong Kong.
2. China keeps on dragging about the trade deal and postponed it again and again. When China's lobbying plan in the Senate is about to succeed and the Senate postponed the passing of the Act to end of Spring 2020, China suddenly does the opposite. China invokes violent protests in HK by killing a protester who died openly in hospital, shot one unarmed protester in the street in front of the camera of TV press, and allow a rape case of a 16-year old pregnant protester girl to come to the press. All these cased were silenced and now suddenly made public and reported in the press, provoking an angry outbreak of citizens' protests. Police beat young people and grabbed teenage girls en masse and let them stand as POW's in the MTR train station and broadcast by the press. More people come to the streets and police pretended to chase protesters to university campuses and students set up protection units.
3. Brutal pictures are sent to USA and senators get provoked. And Joshua Wong and Nathan Law spoke to the goodman Senator Rubio to urge the passing of the Act. The good-hearted Senator Mitch McConnell hastened the process and would like the Act pass overnight. (suddenly suspended till Monday)
4. Question is: why China played an opposite game in the USA and HK, regarding the passing of the Act? Is the Act good for the communist?
Answer is: Please check the time-line I recorded above. Yes, the Act is good for the communist to drag USA into the quagmire of an East Berlin in Hong Kong while most US politicians were thinking that they are saving a West Berlin. Hong Kong in 2019, after 22 years of hand-over to China in 1997, is already East Berlin. When China refused to sign the trade deal with President Trump, Obama-style human rights diplomacy in Hong Kong is a good way for President Xi to spend a happy time with Trump and postpone the deadly trade deal. Trump will become Obama, or Clinton.
Analysis is: The communists are good at Marxist dialectics: They do two opposite things. One earlier, one later. One obvious, one hidden. With two approaches of the CCP at hand, the communists wish to hit the one-agenda of the Senate. Liberal-minded politicians in USA are too impatient to think twice and look at the full scene. Good for McConnell to suspend the process and allow everyone to cool down and think twice. Anyway, once the Act is passed, USA has to persuade China to make meetings in the People's Congress and pass decision to Hong Kong so that full democracy is possible in short term. President Trump may fly to Beijing to meet President Xi on that matter, as a bitter side-dish beyond the main course of the trade deal.
The Act was originally scheduled to pass at the end of Spring 2020. Four months for Trump to work on the trade deal. Why not get the trade deal signed and enforced first, before passing the act?
Wan Chin, 2019-11-16
Wan Chin: China wants the US Senate to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act too much that People's Liberation Army soldiers stationed in HK were deployed to clean the streets and clear the bricks put there by protesters a few days ago. These bricks and other obstacles were deliberately left there uncleared to show that HK is in a state of public disorder so that the police can do as they wish to beat up protesters, grab teenage girls for private use and shoot voluminous tear-gas to poison the neighbourhood. But today, suddenly the road blocks were removed and streets cleaned up and PLA soldiers formally deployed. We don't need PLA ｔto help, as we saw there were an out-numbering sum of full-gear anti-riot police standing by and doing nothing but safeguarding the PLA from any provocation by the residents. Why?
Here are the reasons. First, to urge the Senate to pass the HK Act and drag President Trump back to Obama- or Clinton-style human rights diplomacy with China, as Mr Mitch McConnell prolonged the Senate's hotline process to Monday. Xi Jinping knows too well that signing the trade deal means the end of CCP's economic monopoly in China and he wants to buy time to vacillate between human rights and trade deal.
Second, to test the US response to communist China's military operation in Hong Kong. According to HK law, PLA soldiers can only be deployed when HK falls in emergency state and the Chief Executive (now Carrie Lam) calls the Central Military Committee of CCP (now General Secretary Xi Jin-Ping) for permission to send troops out of the barracks. I am not sure the deployment of PLA troops today, camouflaged in common tees and shorts (their dress-code in silly Kung Fu performance), follows this due process and US government must ensure that whether HK is under martial control in emergency state. If so, Mr Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State should investigate as he said the US government won't rule out any options once the PLA soldiers are deployed in HK, as reported by the current issue of The Hill ("Pompeo: No US response ruled out in Hong Kong", 11/15/19 01:25 PM EST).
Mr Solomon Yue did a good job by raising the question.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-18:
Wan Chin: While solving the siege of the Polytechnic campus in Hong Kong, we need to see farther. Because the communists set up the plot of asking the students to stay in campus castle to fight and the communists order police to siege. It's a fake war, but suffering of kids there is real.
Let's see farther. End scenario for General Secretary Xi Jinping of CCP. Prospects for Hong Kong and China's prosperity and cooperation with USA.
1. First round of USA-China trade agreement will be signed, finally.
2. Xi's severe breach of human rights in Xinjiang (East Turkistan) and Hong Kong released and confirmed.
3. Xi committed serious political mistake while dragging about the trade deal (which is fair and good for both!), hurting China's economy and jeopardizing HK's autonomy and economy and destroying the solidarity between the Chinese and the Uighurs. This is fatal political mistake, even with CCP standard. Any leaders making such mistake must step down.
4. Xi is ousted. He steps down and a more pragmatic leadership of CCP come to power. Leading China's second round of open policy and democracy, starting with the SAR of Hong Kong. China will be open, free, gradually democratic and vibrant in culture, even better than 1980s.
5. After the democratisation of HK, with joint agreement with China, HK will run Chartered Cities in China with help of US-led consultancy and investment. In these HK chartered cities, common law of HK will be practised to protect property rights and human rights. Money and talents will come back to China. Free access to press and internet allowed. Culture life and confidence will be revived in HK and China, huge consumption for US goods and products!
6. General Secretary Xi is hindering the second open policy for China to promoting his own dictatorship plan of China Dream, which will lead China into a dead end and hamper regional stability of Asia.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-18
Wan Chin: It's a fake war in Hong Kong. The summoners are commies. The suppressors are commies. The cause is fake. But the victims are real, the dead bodies are real.
Sorry to have bothered you, President Trump. But your men in Hong Kong are partially, if not crucially, responsible for this fake war.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-19
Wan Chin: Hong Kong at the eve of Fall of Saigon. Please relax. Unless US government mis-responded to the fake war in HK, this won't happen.
The US government, in the Clinton and Obama adminstration, wrongly chose the Pan-Democrats in HK as opposition party to mis-represent the Hong Kong people. Mis-representation led to mis-response. The Pan-Democrats, unfortunately, are the absentee middle-class who earn their money in the China trade and cross-border professional services serving Corporate China and seek retirement in USA and Canada. They collaborate with China, earn big money and pretend to fight, which is somehow similar to the Clinton and Obama administration and the Wall Street Corporate America in the past China engagement policy.
During these months of freedom campaign, I advocated safe and an economically non-harming "Be Water" campaign, while the Pan-Democrats and their opinion leaders urge people to set up road-blocks and fight in encirclement, which end up in trapping protesters for police arrests and maltreatment. Economy and consumer confidence in HK suffered owing to such wrong tactics and fake war.
China is procrastinating the trade deal with USA and desperately wanted a human rights agenda to lock up President Trump and spoil his re-election to office in 2020. Xinjiang won't work too much, as compared to the metropolitan Hong Kong. So police keep bombarding the CBDs (Central Hong Kong two days ago and Tsimshatsui last night) and hitting foreign expats and journalists to make up a drama. I wish the US government stay calm and keep pressurizing China through trade measures and other economic sanctions.
When we Hongkongers raised the American flag, that's the beginning of a beautiful friendship. Good friends understand each other. State Secretary Mike Pompeo comforted us a lot by giving a great support for us in his recent speech on HK. A big thank you. And a good hug for President Trump.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-21
Wan Chin: The HK Human Rights Act was passed in the Senate today, marking the second round of USA-China confrontation. The China-American cold war will last for decades and America may not have the tact and patience to play the chess-game with the commies. Please watch out, my dear President Trump. You may stumble and fall in shame.
1. Trump's strategy laid bare: Trump starts the game. President Trump is squeezing China's US$ reserve, while General Secretary Xi is squeezing America's time for a trade deal. Trump adds the tariffs, cuts China's US$ intake and urged China to buy 50 billions US$ farm goods per year. Creating a US$ vacuum in China and forces China to let US banks, finance companies to run free business in China.
Trump shall win in the first round, and China may win in the second round. Trump may sit there for another term and suffer his mistakes he makes in his first term. Ending up leaving the White House in shame.
2. China's reaction under cover: shadows, breakouts and distractions. The Chinese communists got their power in the Sino-Japanese war in the 1930's and they managed to survive under the USA-supported Kuomintang armies. The communists broke into small units and broke out from the siege of the KMT.
Now the real game comes.
A. First, shadows. While being chased and about to be captured, the Chinese commies are good at changing the speed, going here and there, and breaking the promise every time before the agreement comes. The G20 summit in Osaka is the first time, the (cancelled) APEC in Chile is the second time. When all papers are prepared, Xi suddenly steps back and tear the agreement. He is a dictator. Trump is democratically elected. He suffers when he bragged about the coming deal, his election promise and God knows why he honours it, and suddenly went to bubbles. So Trump will give in. The first deal wasted Trump's half of his term of office. The second deal will probably ruin the remaining time of his term.
B. Breakouts and Distractions. The fake war (pl. refer to my former fb post) staged by the Pan-Democrats in the university campuses to entice police to storm and beat and torture and rape students drew the Senators' attention and tears. The tear gas in HK worked in Washington. The HK Human Rights Act is hastened to be passed, 4 months before the scheduled time, squeezing out Trumps time to deal with Xi. Trump seems to succumb to China but cutting tariffs or dropping out all the tariffs, disarming himself against China to desperately get the trade agreement. China used the worsened human rights conditions and public order and distraction to waste Trump's time.
The commies in China are no fools. They are ultimate survivors. How should Trump react? I talk about this in my private Salon speech and proposed a Trump cocktail therapy against the Chinese AIDS. Details withhold. The President would know by just reading the recipe's name I wrote here. Trump is the most intelligent and determined politician after Reagan. Super IQ and leadership. The problem is, Trump's Gorbachev is missing in China. He has to make one.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-23
Wan Chin: Thank you, President Trump for saving Hong Kong from the PLA massacre by calling General Secretary Xi Jinping to stop obliterating Hong Kong in 14 minutes. (The 14-minutes calculation show how accurately US know about HK's weakness and CCP's military ability) We were scared when US intelligence showed that ten thousand communist soldiers stationed near the border a few months ago and we thanked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice-President Pence for warning CCP against the use of force. But we didn't know that Trump personally phoned Xi and stopped him from the bravado. We are grateful for this wonderful friendship. A friend in need is a friend indeed.
We trust President Trump will do the most strategic choice when he is about to sign the prematurely passed Hong Kong Human Rights Bill four months ahead of time, stealing the President's time to deal with Xi.
The Chinese communists are cunning but they obey political realism in order to survive. The soviet communists were romantic and would choose a tragic end by Gorbachev. But not the CCP, the ultimate realists. The CCP only listen to the iron fist of military power and follow the heavy-handed and strong-minded.
As I analysed in my fb post two days ago, the main strategy between Trump and Xi is the squeezing of US$ for Xi through tariffs and the squeezing of time for Trump's first term of office through procrastination of trade deals and distraction of the Hong Kong human rights diplomacy. From a freedom fighter in Hong Kong with thirty years of close entanglement with the communists, I would advise the President to consider these:
1. Be heavy-handed and strong-minded: Keep the tariffs while making the preliminary trade deal, which is already a big concession from the all-round trade deal. Why cut the tariffs when China gain from the deal?
2. Xi squeeze Trump's time. Trump should return to Xi the double and let him feel the lovely pain: threat to take away Xi's permanent office as state head. A gesture of small-scale conflict in the South China Sea would cost Xi's office. A Chinese Gorbachev will be made to meet Trumps demand if Xi choose to remain romantic about his China Dream.
3. Meet the Hong Kong distraction head-on: support strongly the Hong Kong case and make it a prerequisite to the trade deal, otherwise double the tariffs and start new tariffs. Grab more corrupt cadres and spies overseas. This will cost CCP's double loss while they create a sideline in the HK issue.
The best way to protect Trump's nice friend Xi who is not so fit for his office is to put him down. That's the best protection Trump could offer to a nice friend. Trump will at the end save the lives of Hongkongers and the life of General Secretary Xi. Prosperity and stability in East Asia. World order changed. Big job done by the great and kind President Trump.
Wan Chin, 2019-11-26
Wan Chin: Hong Kong fell into the Alice in the Wonderland's rabbit hole of oblivion after last night's vote for an insignificant District Council. The fire for freedom was extinguished by the vote for the powerless but high-paying seats.
The War in Hong Kong is fake. But the killing, beating and mass systematic rape done to the protesters are real. The months-long protests and siege of the campuses costing the arrest and persecution of four thousands freedom fighters and numerous deaths were settled with the 80 seats gained by the Pan-Democrats in the consulting bodies of the District Councils.
The damaged Cross-habour Tunnel and metro railway suddenly resumed service this morning, although the government claimed they will be closed until late December to ensure safety of passengers.
The USA government supported a group of Democrats in HK to harness local unrest into controllable and short-lived campaigns, which can engage the communist regime as well as keeping the public order of this finance hub. However, the "Be Water" strategy and the uncompromisingly audacious activists over the past six months embarrassed the Democrats as well as the Communist regime. To settle this, before the District Council Election, the Democrats urged the brave activists to damage the Cross-harbour Tunnel and assemble in the Polytechnic, resulting in the brutal suppression and cruel siege by the police.
The merely symbolic revenge of voting on the election day the 24th November put an end to the campaign, leaving tens of thousands of activists in silent anger and sadness.
It's utter immorality and blatant betrayal.
The US government, esp. President Trump need to rethink whether such a China engaging agency cultivated during the Clinton and Obama administration in HK's political arena would still work, when the HK Human Rights Bill is to be practised here and universal suffrage granted. Otherwise the Fall of Saigon of 1975 will repeat itself in HK, because of fake representation and corrupt agency. Once USA loses its moral ground in HK, the commies will fight back.
Wan Chin, 2019-12-14
Wan Chin: President Trump finally did it right. He postponed the time for first-round trade agreement with General Secretary Xi to time after next November, after the presidential election 2020.
A successful move, finally. As I summarized before in my fb post, Trump takes away Xi's US$ reserve and Xi retaliate by taking away Trump's time of his first term of office. That's all about the USA-China chess game. So simple and yet so risky.
The problem is: why Trump allow Xi to take away Trump's time? It's a matter of relative velocity in physics. And Trump made a big big mistake in dealing with Communist China. If Trump didn't re-think his tactics, he will end up reaping a poor and shattering China, which he tried with all means to avoid at the very beginning. Now comes the simple high school physics, just an analogy of course:
1. Trump used a strategy of accelerating and adding up the tariffs on imported goods from China. And Xi wastes Trump's time by raising fake retaliating tariffs and a fake war on human rights and rule of law in Hong Kong. Xi knows too well than Trump's acceleration has a limit because Trump wants to reap a still rich and peaceful China, not a China shattered. So when Trump slowed down with tariffs, Xi speeds up with his fake war in Hong Kong, urging USA to pass a human rights bill prematurely to steal Trump's time.
2. What mis-calculation has Trump made? I would say mistake, or even gross blunder. Trump should do it the other way round: he should have increased all tariffs rocket-high and gave Xi a shock therapy and took away Xi's US$ and reaction time altogether. Experts in the White House and China-watchers in US think-tanks may not know this Taoist tactic: Seek life in death. Trump can only take China live by daring to push her to death.
Trump is a kind man. Xi will thank kind man Trump for saving Xi's office in exchange of Trump's.
