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(reminder: all quotes here are fiddled, probably.)


真個是, 天堂門口也有通住地獄的捷徑. 逼得陳雲要直接寫英文.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-15

Wan Chin: Politicians in USA are puzzled by China's two-sided tactics in the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act. Such bifurcated approach of the CCP runs this way:

1. China keeps on lobbying US senators not to pass the HK Human Rights Act, which pressures China to keep her promise to allow HK full democracy. China cracks down the protest with the outlawed police force, but China says nothing against universal suffrage in Hong Kong.

2. China keeps on dragging about the trade deal and postponed it again and again. When China's lobbying plan in the Senate is about to succeed and the Senate postponed the passing of the Act to end of Spring 2020, China suddenly does the opposite. China invokes violent protests in HK by killing a protester who died openly in hospital, shot one unarmed protester in the street in front of the camera of TV press, and allow a rape case of a 16-year old pregnant protester girl to come to the press. All these cased were silenced and now suddenly made public and reported in the press, provoking an angry outbreak of citizens' protests. Police beat young people and grabbed teenage girls en masse and let them stand as POW's in the MTR train station and broadcast by the press. More people come to the streets and police pretended to chase protesters to university campuses and students set up protection units.

3. Brutal pictures are sent to USA and senators get provoked. And Joshua Wong and Nathan Law spoke to the goodman Senator Rubio to urge the passing of the Act. The good-hearted Senator Mitch McConnell hastened the process and would like the Act pass overnight. (suddenly suspended till Monday)

4. Question is: why China played an opposite game in the USA and HK, regarding the passing of the Act? Is the Act good for the communist?

Answer is: Please check the time-line I recorded above. Yes, the Act is good for the communist to drag USA into the quagmire of an East Berlin in Hong Kong while most US politicians were thinking that they are saving a West Berlin. Hong Kong in 2019, after 22 years of hand-over to China in 1997, is already East Berlin. When China refused to sign the trade deal with President Trump, Obama-style human rights diplomacy in Hong Kong is a good way for President Xi to spend a happy time with Trump and postpone the deadly trade deal. Trump will become Obama, or Clinton.

Analysis is: The communists are good at Marxist dialectics: They do two opposite things. One earlier, one later. One obvious, one hidden. With two approaches of the CCP at hand, the communists wish to hit the one-agenda of the Senate. Liberal-minded politicians in USA are too impatient to think twice and look at the full scene. Good for McConnell to suspend the process and allow everyone to cool down and think twice. Anyway, once the Act is passed, USA has to persuade China to make meetings in the People's Congress and pass decision to Hong Kong so that full democracy is possible in short term. President Trump may fly to Beijing to meet President Xi on that matter, as a bitter side-dish beyond the main course of the trade deal.

The Act was originally scheduled to pass at the end of Spring 2020. Four months for Trump to work on the trade deal. Why not get the trade deal signed and enforced first, before passing the act?

Wan Chin, 2019-11-16

Wan Chin: China wants the US Senate to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act too much that People's Liberation Army soldiers stationed in HK were deployed to clean the streets and clear the bricks put there by protesters a few days ago. These bricks and other obstacles were deliberately left there uncleared to show that HK is in a state of public disorder so that the police can do as they wish to beat up protesters, grab teenage girls for private use and shoot voluminous tear-gas to poison the neighbourhood. But today, suddenly the road blocks were removed and streets cleaned up and PLA soldiers formally deployed. We don't need PLA tto help, as we saw there were an out-numbering sum of full-gear anti-riot police standing by and doing nothing but safeguarding the PLA from any provocation by the residents. Why?

Here are the reasons. First, to urge the Senate to pass the HK Act and drag President Trump back to Obama- or Clinton-style human rights diplomacy with China, as Mr Mitch McConnell prolonged the Senate's hotline process to Monday. Xi Jinping knows too well that signing the trade deal means the end of CCP's economic monopoly in China and he wants to buy time to vacillate between human rights and trade deal.

Second, to test the US response to communist China's military operation in Hong Kong. According to HK law, PLA soldiers can only be deployed when HK falls in emergency state and the Chief Executive (now Carrie Lam) calls the Central Military Committee of CCP (now General Secretary Xi Jin-Ping) for permission to send troops out of the barracks. I am not sure the deployment of PLA troops today, camouflaged in common tees and shorts (their dress-code in silly Kung Fu performance), follows this due process and US government must ensure that whether HK is under martial control in emergency state. If so, Mr Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State should investigate as he said the US government won't rule out any options once the PLA soldiers are deployed in HK, as reported by the current issue of The Hill ("Pompeo: No US response ruled out in Hong Kong", 11/15/19 01:25 PM EST).

Mr Solomon Yue did a good job by raising the question.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-18:

Wan Chin: While solving the siege of the Polytechnic campus in Hong Kong, we need to see farther. Because the communists set up the plot of asking the students to stay in campus castle to fight and the communists order police to siege. It's a fake war, but suffering of kids there is real.

Let's see farther. End scenario for General Secretary Xi Jinping of CCP. Prospects for Hong Kong and China's prosperity and cooperation with USA.

1. First round of USA-China trade agreement will be signed, finally.

2. Xi's severe breach of human rights in Xinjiang (East Turkistan) and Hong Kong released and confirmed.

3. Xi committed serious political mistake while dragging about the trade deal (which is fair and good for both!), hurting China's economy and jeopardizing HK's autonomy and economy and destroying the solidarity between the Chinese and the Uighurs. This is fatal political mistake, even with CCP standard. Any leaders making such mistake must step down.

4. Xi is ousted. He steps down and a more pragmatic leadership of CCP come to power. Leading China's second round of open policy and democracy, starting with the SAR of Hong Kong. China will be open, free, gradually democratic and vibrant in culture, even better than 1980s.

5. After the democratisation of HK, with joint agreement with China, HK will run Chartered Cities in China with help of US-led consultancy and investment. In these HK chartered cities, common law of HK will be practised to protect property rights and human rights. Money and talents will come back to China. Free access to press and internet allowed. Culture life and confidence will be revived in HK and China, huge consumption for US goods and products!

6. General Secretary Xi is hindering the second open policy for China to promoting his own dictatorship plan of China Dream, which will lead China into a dead end and hamper regional stability of Asia.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-18

Wan Chin: It's a fake war in Hong Kong. The summoners are commies. The suppressors are commies. The cause is fake. But the victims are real, the dead bodies are real.
Sorry to have bothered you, President Trump. But your men in Hong Kong are partially, if not crucially, responsible for this fake war.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-19

Wan Chin: Hong Kong at the eve of Fall of Saigon. Please relax. Unless US government mis-responded to the fake war in HK, this won't happen.

The US government, in the Clinton and Obama adminstration, wrongly chose the Pan-Democrats in HK as opposition party to mis-represent the Hong Kong people. Mis-representation led to mis-response. The Pan-Democrats, unfortunately, are the absentee middle-class who earn their money in the China trade and cross-border professional services serving Corporate China and seek retirement in USA and Canada. They collaborate with China, earn big money and pretend to fight, which is somehow similar to the Clinton and Obama administration and the Wall Street Corporate America in the past China engagement policy.
During these months of freedom campaign, I advocated safe and an economically non-harming "Be Water" campaign, while the Pan-Democrats and their opinion leaders urge people to set up road-blocks and fight in encirclement, which end up in trapping protesters for police arrests and maltreatment. Economy and consumer confidence in HK suffered owing to such wrong tactics and fake war.

China is procrastinating the trade deal with USA and desperately wanted a human rights agenda to lock up President Trump and spoil his re-election to office in 2020. Xinjiang won't work too much, as compared to the metropolitan Hong Kong. So police keep bombarding the CBDs (Central Hong Kong two days ago and Tsimshatsui last night) and hitting foreign expats and journalists to make up a drama. I wish the US government stay calm and keep pressurizing China through trade measures and other economic sanctions.
When we Hongkongers raised the American flag, that's the beginning of a beautiful friendship. Good friends understand each other. State Secretary Mike Pompeo comforted us a lot by giving a great support for us in his recent speech on HK. A big thank you. And a good hug for President Trump.







果然是春秋筆法, 一字褒貶.



序 段












































(案這所說的辦法與近來藹理斯夫人所主張的「半分離的結婚」semi-detached marriage相似,不過更是浪漫的罷了。《徒然草》第二百四十段中反對父母之命媒妁之言所結合的夫婦,他說「不知他們第一句是說什麼話?」,這真是大家都想問的一件事。他以為只有情人團聚,「互說往昔相思的苦辛,約會的艱難,這才有不盡的情話。」此節更反對結婚,老法師的波希米人性質益發現無遺了。)




















熱血時報 2019-10-18 日 報道:

陳同佳去信林鄭稱願到台灣自首 冀港府協助安排手續



熱血時報同日 另一報道:


觸發反修例風波的台灣殺人案疑犯陳同佳,因同時觸犯洗黑錢罪在港判囚,據了解他將於下周三(10月23日)刑滿出獄。聖公會教省秘書長 管浩鳴 引述陳同佳指,願到台灣自首。他又指說陳同佳經已簽署對台灣的律師委託書,並非單純口頭承諾。

管浩鳴, 北京市政協委員也

Wan Chin 當晚在 Facebook 批評:



中共對於製造變相引渡的成例, 真是死心不惜.

* * *

原來台灣在 2019-10-17 日已發了 公告.







言下之意, 你莫當我堂堂中華民國政府是儍瓜.

果不其然, 台灣早知所謂赴台自首之事. 新頭殼newtalk 2019-10-21 日報道:

黃承國:9月底帶管浩鳴會徐國勇 盼談陳同佳投案


* * *

回頭看熱血時報所引述的 香港政府 2019-10-18 日新聞公告:

2019年10月18日(星期五) 香港時間22時17分





對照台灣的預先回應, 新聞稿寫成這個樣子, 原因就足已明白了.

2019-10-19 日, 熱血時報 跟進報道:

台灣刑事局已接獲香港來函 得悉陳同佳願赴台自首意願


港府言必稱合法, 何其心虛.

台灣收到正式知會後, 馬上採取應對措施. 自由時報同日報道:

港女命案兇嫌管制入境 「不可能讓港府為所欲為」


又, 自由時報同日報道:




受到台灣質疑, 港府 2019-10-20 日發聲明辯解. 熱血時報報道:

港府否認陳同佳「被自首」 冀台方務實及積極接收


2019-10-21 日, 台灣陸委會回應港府聲明. 熱血時報報道:

陸委會斥港府背離事實混淆視聽 促務實面對台方請求






問題是, 如果港府硬送他上飛機赴台又如何? 自由時報同日報道:

藍委問若陳同佳出現在桃園機場 徐國勇:當然抓起來



* * *

自由時報 2019-10-21
政府拒陳同佳投案 國民黨︰民進黨沉浸選舉操作氛圍
自由時報 2019-10-22
不滿陳同佳案蔡政府發言 馬英九哽咽:我也是2個女兒的爸爸
中國時報 2019-10-22
呂秀蓮批蔡英文 懦弱如林鄭

Wan Chin 2019-10-21 Facebook 從法權、主權、外交層面, 分析了整個事件:



帖文得到台灣三立, 自由時報等媒體引述.

Wan Chin 2019-10-22 再於 facebook 就主權、法權問題補充說明:





2019-10-22 日. 台灣執政黨終於反守為攻. 熱血時報 報道

台灣陸委會致函港府 將派員到港押解陳同佳


港府凌晨發出的聲明. 熱血時報 2019-10-23 日報道:



次日早晨蔡英文發言. 熱血時報 2019-10-23 日報道:

台灣伸張司法正義伸張主權 蔡英文:港府不要迴避








Sigh No More

from Much Ado About Nothing (1993)
Composed by Patrick Doyle

(youtube) David Snell (2), Brutal Heidi

Sigh no more, ladies, sigh no more,
Men were deceivers ever;
One foot in sea, and one on shore,
To one thing constant never.
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blith and bonny,
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into Hey nonny, nonny.

Sing no more ditties, sing no more
Of dumps so dull and heavy;
The fraud of men was ever so,
Since summer first was leavy.
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blith and bonny,
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into Hey nonny, nonny.

Other versions: RJS Stevens's, Joss Whedon's


Aeneid, lines 16--43

Virgil's Aeneid (David Ferry's translation)

There was an ancient city known as Carthage
(Settled by men from Tyre), across the sea
And opposite to Italy and the mouth
Of the Tiber river; very rich, and fierce,
Experienced in warfare. Juno, they say,
Loved Carthage more than any other place
In the whole wide world, more even than Samos.
Here's where she kept her chariot and her armor.
It was her fierce desire, if fate permitted,
That Carthage should be chief city of the world.
But she had heard that there would come a people,
Engendered of Trojan blood, who would someday
Throw down the Tyrian citadel, a people
Proud in warfare, rulers of many realms,
Destined to bring down Libya. Thus it was
That the Parcae's turning wheel foretold the story.

Fearful of this and remembering the old
War she had waged at Troy for her dear Greeks,
And remembering too her sorrow and her rage
Because of Paris's insult to her beauty,
Remembering her hatred of his people,
And the honors paid to ravished Ganymede---
For all these causes her purpose was to keep
The Trojan remnant who'd survived the Greeks
And pitiless Achilles far from Latium,
On turbulent waters wandering, year after year,
Driven by fates across the many seas.

So formidable the task of founding Rome.

Aeneid, lines 1--15

Virgil's Aeneid (David Ferry's translation)

I sing of arms and the man whom fate had sent
To exile from the shores of Troy to be
The first to come to Lavinium and the coasts
Of Italy, and who, because of Juno's
Savage implacable rage, was battered by storms
At sea, and from the heavens above, and also
By tempests of war, until at last he might
Bring his gods to Latium, and build there his town
From which would come the Alban Fathers and
The lofty walls of Rome. Muse, tell me
The cause why Juno the queen of heaven was so
Aggrieved by what offense against her power,
To send this virtuous faithful hero out
To perform so many labors, confront such dangers?

Can anger like this be, in immortal hearts?

Chin and Cheng to US Congress (2019)

An Open Letter to All Members of the United States Congress on Upcoming Legislations Regarding Hong Kong

October 1, 2019

Some compare Hong Kong to former West Berlin, which was triumphant in 1990. We may foresee Hong Kong as Saigon of former South Vietnam, which fell in 1975, if legislations mentioned below are passed, but not forcefully enforced, and eternal vigilance is not maintained.

Dr. Hon. Cheng Chung-tai and Dr. Chin Wan-kan are writing to The United States Congress to set out what they consider the issues it may wish to prioritize as follow ups of the upcoming legislations of “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” (H.R.3289, S.1838), “Hong Kong Policy Reevaluation Act of 2019” (S.1824), “Placing Restrictions on Teargas Exports and Crowd Control Technology to Hong Kong Act” ( H.R.4270), and possible armament of “United States–Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992” (P.L. no. 102-383m 106 Stat. 1448).

First of all, we are deeply appreciative of all the Members of the United States Congress who support toward the freedom and democratic causes of Hong Kong, and have already made up their minds to vote “aye” for all the above motions.

—Why we have come down to this?—

For the Senators and Representatives who are still undecided on the four Bills and one Resolution regarding Hong Kong issues. We would like to point out that:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has already declared 1984 “Sino-British Joint Declaration” as “void and only covered the period from the signing in 1984 until the handover in 1997”, and repeatedly violates its own “Hong Kong Basic Law” (the most glaring example at the moment is to do with Article 28, which states that “No Hong Kong resident shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful arrest, detention or imprisonment. Arbitrary or unlawful search of the body of any resident or deprivation or restriction of the freedom of the person shall be prohibited. Torture of any resident or arbitrary or unlawful deprivation of the life of any resident shall be prohibited”). Both the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law should be regarded as a Social Contract between China and the people of Hong Kong, while the former is an international agreement, and acts as a test of character for Post-Maoist China, which they fail miserably at the moment. Especially it is increasingly clear that Xi Jinping is pursuing Neo-Maoist, Pan-Sino Chauvinist (which is as toxic as Pan-Germanism in around one century ago), totalitarian policies assisted by cutting edge surveillance, AI and Big Data technologies, and taking advantage of “restore Law and Order” pretext. Hong Kong will not be exempted.

The ongoing crisis of Hong Kong is not an isolated incident. Our predicament is at first, one of the prices of Cold War Triumph over Soviet Union, then thirty years of the United States’ miscalculation of PRC’s strategic intention, and the subsequent “Engagement Policy”. The former made 1997 Handover possible, while the later made Hong Kong’s Democratic and Autonomy aspiration an under-supported, long and desperate uphill struggle, as in the defense of Bataan Peninsula for three decades. Only recent Chinese Communist Party’s overreach on all fronts, and the US awakening on PRC’s true nature, give us a glimmer of hope.

—What is at stake?—

We would like to highlight several points to connect the dots, in order to reflect the gravity of the situation.

Earlier in November 2018, a Professor of National Defence University of People’s Liberation Army (PLA), who is also an active duty PLA Major General, said in a public speech that, according to Maoist Class Analysis, people of Hong Kong were “worst of the kind”, because one third of them was ex-Landlords who escaped from Land Reform, another one third escaped from the Great Leap Forward Movement (note: other Political Movements should be counted too), the rest of them was locally born with heavy British influence. The recent incidents will certainly strengthen his opinion. Hong Kong people who are unwilling to conform with CCP’s values could eventually receive Uyghurs-like treatments, or even a downright genocide. It should not be considered too far-fetched.
In December 2018, HKSAR’s Security Bureau sent seven high ranking officials to Xinjiang to “study counter-terrorism methods”. In January 2019, the Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu said that “everything we saw was humane”. The official urged people not to wear “colored glasses” and gleefully noted that the methods employed to suppress terrorism had succeeded because there “had been almost no real attacks in the past two years”. In other words, an almost word-for-word repetition of the official Communist Party line (see “Does John Lee have no shame?” by Stephen Vines at on January 11, 2019).

Throughout the Summer of Discontent, Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF) (as did many pro-Communists) constantly called the protesters as “cockroaches”, no matter in internal groups in smartphone messaging apps or in intercom conversations (overheard by reporters in many occasions). As recent as 23 September, during a routine HKPF’s press briefing, Acting Senior Superintendent (Operations) of New Territories North Region Vasco Williams denied any instance of misconduct (referring to the back alley lynching of an elderly protester who dressed in yellow T-shirt and yellow vest by police officers), “You mentioned a video that showed what appeared to be an officer kicking a ‘yellow object’ on the ground,” Williams later feebly argued that he meant the image to be grainy and should not be taken as physical evidence. Yet it was another example of police’s dehumanization of protesters, as a psychological preparation for committing genocide.

For the reasons above, a basic moral obligation for all Congressmen to vote “aye” for all upcoming legislations regarding Hong Kong is totally sound and significant, so as to nip this early stage of humanitarian disaster in the bud.

—Overlooked war crimes of Hong Kong Police Force—

We would also want to bring one crucial point pertinent to “Placing Restrictions on Teargas Exports and Crowd Control Technology to Hong Kong Act” (H.R.4270):

HKPF’s Special Tactical Squad (STS), or more commonly known as “Raptors Team” by the locals, is a paramilitary task force or a crack unit which composes of senior instructors of Hong Kong Police College, elite members of Police Tactical Unit, famous Special Duties Unit, Counter Terrorism Response Unit, Airport Security Unit, and Railway Response Team which was set up just half a year ago. The units aforementioned were formed with Counter-Terrorism in mind and with special force-grade training. STS would only be assembled during civil unrest. In a nutshell, STS is similar to former Soviet/ CIS member states’ Ministry of Internal Affairs Special Forces, aiming at suppressing civil disturbances with iron fists.

Thus, STS’s heavy hand approach to protesters should be considered as war crimes and a major military dishonor among those special force trained members. STS weapons are almost exclusively NATO-origin. The aforementioned Counter-Terrorism units are likewise all having close co-operation relationships with NATO member nations. Considering the Security Bureau officials’ recent visit to Xinjiang, the bureau might have already passed on their technical and tactical know-hows to PLA, People’s Armed Police Force (PAP) and/ or other intelligence and security apparatus.

—Give them no quarters—

We are likewise aware that, some Hong Kong Pan-Democrat Legislators and famous Social Activists felt that, the US sanctions should concentrate on HKSAR officials, and refrain from invoking “Nuclear Option” (i.e. “United States–Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992”), for it will affect the livelihood of ordinary Hong Kong people greatly. While we should not recklessly put ordinary livelihood at risk, but the harsh realities are:

Since 1 September, there has been an unusual high count of suicide (over thirty), all of them were unilaterally declared by Hong Kong Police Force as “nothing suspicious”, while there were widespread allegations of serious tortures and sexual assaults against protesters at police stations and especially the remote San Uk Ling Holding Centre. Circumstantially, there are reasonable suspicions that those “suicide cases” may be fatalities of police retaliatory lynching and cover-up, since the authorities monopolize forensic investigations.

While it was extremely lucky that the Cold War was won without Nuclear Exchange, the Western Bloc Nuclear Deterrent kept the Free World generally safe and prosperous in the duration of the Cold War. For the same reason, a constant warning of the US withdrawing admission of Hong Kong unique status is still necessary to deter further transgressions of freedom and autonomy.

Keeping it in mind that if HKSAR or PRC government declares State of Emergency by invoking “Emergency Regulations Ordinance” or “Hong Kong Basic Law” Article 18, it will yield the same effect of “Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Ordinance 2019”, it should be deemed as one of the “tripwire causes” of the aforementioned “Nuclear Option”.

Moreover, the sanctions of “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” should not be just limited to HKSAR, HKPF, PRC leaders, former leaders, and high-ranking officials who contribute to this slippery slope of tyranny, but even middle to lower ranking functionaries, no matter from public or private sector, who commit “Banality of Evil”, and the last but not least, Triad members who carry out attacks against protesters (especially on 21 July in Yuen Long), should all be severely punished.

Since Xi Jinping is reverting to Maoist ideology and policies with a vengeance, it makes “One Country, Two Systems” more relevant and necessary for Hong Kong as ever. Since the “twenty-two-year implementation” was far from Hong Kongers’ satisfaction, and we are near to the half way point of the fifty-year timespan, all Congressional legislations regarding Hong Kong should explicitly state that they will not be expired by 2047. It would also deliver a clear message to PRC that, since the Engagement Policy fails to liberalize China as planned, the US will not accept further “Mainlandization” of Hong Kong. The original Classical Liberal traditions of Hong Kong should be preserved, and the illiberal measures since 1997 should be all rollbacked.

Back then during the Pacific War, when Hong Kong was under the yoke of ruthless rule by Imperial Japan for most of the territory. The United States Army Air Force and Navy launched multiples air strikes on military installations in Hong Kong, unavoidably, civilian casualties were resulted, but very few survivors held a grunge against the Americans, for they clearly knew who should really be blamed. We should view the current desperate situation in the same manner.

—Appeal to Americans—

Finally, we would like to have a few words to the American societies:

To American Conservatives: Citing a famous quote in the movie “The Usual Suspects”, “the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist”, the greatest trick the Chinese Communist Party ever pulled on Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 “southern tour” was convincing the world that they were not “Communists” anymore. In fact, they are still strictly Leninists in term of Party structure. Their brand of “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” is, in a nutshell, not Classical Laissez-faire Capitalism, but State Capitalism, whereas Umpires and Ballplayers rolled into one. For anyone, from Corporate America to ordinary folks, seeking business opportunities in China, there is an increasingly NO-win situation. While trade surplus of American’s Allies is mostly used for their domestic welfare programs, PRC use their trade surplus to vastly modernize their military, and their State Apparatus Sino-American relationship before 2016 was obviously not reciprocal, the changes afterward were long overdue, as did the current legislations about Hong Kong.

To American Liberals: You might have a tendency to doubt your own country’s heritage greatness, and show more appreciations toward other nations, while it could be a healthy antidote of excessive jingoism, PRC is not a variable alternative of Pax Americana. They suppressed Human Rights Lawyers, Feminist Activists, a BL erotica novelist, Uyghurs Muslims, Tibetan Buddhists, Christians, no matter official-sanctioned Churches or underground “Family Churches”, with equal rigor, they are against all segments of ideologies or Identity Politics which are not absolutely obedient to CCP.

Had nothing is done on Hong Kong, and if PRC surpasses USA and attains the number one superpower status, the current polarization of Western Politics will be rendered irrelevant, and what happen to us right now, will befall upon all of you.

Dr. Hon. Cheng Chung-tai
Dr. Chin Wan-kan


反擊/反抗, 非私了



天地間真滋味, 唯靜者能嘗得出;
天地間真機括, 唯靜者能看得透;
天地間真情景, 唯靜者能題得破.
作熱鬧人, 說孟浪話, 豈無一得, 皆偶合也.

The frog problem

standupmaths, Can you solve The Frog Problem? (youtube)


1. When the frog jumps it randomly chooses from one of the possible landing places.
2. The frog keeps jumping forwards until it crosses the river.
3. If the maximum is n jumps and the minimum is 1 jump to cross the river, what is the expected number of jumps?

The answer should be an explicit formula, not a non-recusive relation.
Someone said in the comments that the answer is the harmonic series.

Let E(n) be the expected number of jumps in where the frog has n possible spaces to jump to at the beginning. (i.e. n-1 lotus leaves and 1 spot for the opposite bank).
E(n) = 1/n + 1/(n-1) + 1/(n-2) + ... + 1

I cannot quite follow how he gets E(n) = 1/n * (1 + E(n-1)) + (n-1)/n * E(n-1), though I get the same answer E(n) = 1/n + E(n-1).

Here is my line of thought:

E1 = 1
E2 = 1/2*1 + 1/2*(1 + E1)
E3 = 1/3*1 + 1/3*(1 + E1) + 1/3*(1 + E2)
E(n) = 1/n*1 + 1/n*(1 + E1) + 1/n*(1 + E2) + ... + 1/n*(1 + E(n-1))

Grouping the terms we get
E(n) = 1 + 1/n*(E1 + E2 + ... E(n-2) + E(n-1))

Now let's look at E(n-1). Following the similar argument we have
E(n-1) = 1 + 1/(n-1)*(E1 + E2 + ... + E(n-2)), so
E1 + ... + E(n-2) = (n-1)*E(n-1) - (n-1)

Putting into E(n) we get E(n) = 1/n + E(n-1).

Penelope to Ulysses

From Ovid's Heroides, translated by Harold Isbell (1990):

Penelope to the tardy Ulysses:
do not answer these lines, but come, for
Troy is dead and the daughters of Greece rejoice.
But all of Troy and Priam himself
are not worth the price I've paid for victory.
How often I have wished that Paris
had drowned before he reached our welcoming shores.
If he had died I would not have been
compelled now to sleep in my cold bed
complaining always of the tiresome
prospect of endless nights and days spent working
like a poor woman at my tedious loom.


You are my refuge and my home, my husband.
Have a father's concern for your son;
let us see a son's concern for your father
who waits now for you to close his eyes.
Just remember, I was a young girl when you left;
if you came at once you would find an old woman.

* * *

Clare Pollard performs from her new translation of Ovid's Heroides
Phaedra to Hippolytus: (youtube)