posts | comments | archives | links | create | song
(reminder: all quotes here are fiddled, probably.)

緊張關頭


真個是, 天堂門口也有通住地獄的捷徑. 逼得陳雲要直接寫英文.


Wan Chin, 2019-11-15

Wan Chin: Politicians in USA are puzzled by China's two-sided tactics in the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act. Such bifurcated approach of the CCP runs this way:

1. China keeps on lobbying US senators not to pass the HK Human Rights Act, which pressures China to keep her promise to allow HK full democracy. China cracks down the protest with the outlawed police force, but China says nothing against universal suffrage in Hong Kong.

2. China keeps on dragging about the trade deal and postponed it again and again. When China's lobbying plan in the Senate is about to succeed and the Senate postponed the passing of the Act to end of Spring 2020, China suddenly does the opposite. China invokes violent protests in HK by killing a protester who died openly in hospital, shot one unarmed protester in the street in front of the camera of TV press, and allow a rape case of a 16-year old pregnant protester girl to come to the press. All these cased were silenced and now suddenly made public and reported in the press, provoking an angry outbreak of citizens' protests. Police beat young people and grabbed teenage girls en masse and let them stand as POW's in the MTR train station and broadcast by the press. More people come to the streets and police pretended to chase protesters to university campuses and students set up protection units.

3. Brutal pictures are sent to USA and senators get provoked. And Joshua Wong and Nathan Law spoke to the goodman Senator Rubio to urge the passing of the Act. The good-hearted Senator Mitch McConnell hastened the process and would like the Act pass overnight. (suddenly suspended till Monday)

4. Question is: why China played an opposite game in the USA and HK, regarding the passing of the Act? Is the Act good for the communist?

Answer is: Please check the time-line I recorded above. Yes, the Act is good for the communist to drag USA into the quagmire of an East Berlin in Hong Kong while most US politicians were thinking that they are saving a West Berlin. Hong Kong in 2019, after 22 years of hand-over to China in 1997, is already East Berlin. When China refused to sign the trade deal with President Trump, Obama-style human rights diplomacy in Hong Kong is a good way for President Xi to spend a happy time with Trump and postpone the deadly trade deal. Trump will become Obama, or Clinton.

Analysis is: The communists are good at Marxist dialectics: They do two opposite things. One earlier, one later. One obvious, one hidden. With two approaches of the CCP at hand, the communists wish to hit the one-agenda of the Senate. Liberal-minded politicians in USA are too impatient to think twice and look at the full scene. Good for McConnell to suspend the process and allow everyone to cool down and think twice. Anyway, once the Act is passed, USA has to persuade China to make meetings in the People's Congress and pass decision to Hong Kong so that full democracy is possible in short term. President Trump may fly to Beijing to meet President Xi on that matter, as a bitter side-dish beyond the main course of the trade deal.

The Act was originally scheduled to pass at the end of Spring 2020. Four months for Trump to work on the trade deal. Why not get the trade deal signed and enforced first, before passing the act?



Wan Chin, 2019-11-16

Wan Chin: China wants the US Senate to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act too much that People's Liberation Army soldiers stationed in HK were deployed to clean the streets and clear the bricks put there by protesters a few days ago. These bricks and other obstacles were deliberately left there uncleared to show that HK is in a state of public disorder so that the police can do as they wish to beat up protesters, grab teenage girls for private use and shoot voluminous tear-gas to poison the neighbourhood. But today, suddenly the road blocks were removed and streets cleaned up and PLA soldiers formally deployed. We don't need PLA tto help, as we saw there were an out-numbering sum of full-gear anti-riot police standing by and doing nothing but safeguarding the PLA from any provocation by the residents. Why?

Here are the reasons. First, to urge the Senate to pass the HK Act and drag President Trump back to Obama- or Clinton-style human rights diplomacy with China, as Mr Mitch McConnell prolonged the Senate's hotline process to Monday. Xi Jinping knows too well that signing the trade deal means the end of CCP's economic monopoly in China and he wants to buy time to vacillate between human rights and trade deal.

Second, to test the US response to communist China's military operation in Hong Kong. According to HK law, PLA soldiers can only be deployed when HK falls in emergency state and the Chief Executive (now Carrie Lam) calls the Central Military Committee of CCP (now General Secretary Xi Jin-Ping) for permission to send troops out of the barracks. I am not sure the deployment of PLA troops today, camouflaged in common tees and shorts (their dress-code in silly Kung Fu performance), follows this due process and US government must ensure that whether HK is under martial control in emergency state. If so, Mr Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State should investigate as he said the US government won't rule out any options once the PLA soldiers are deployed in HK, as reported by the current issue of The Hill ("Pompeo: No US response ruled out in Hong Kong", 11/15/19 01:25 PM EST).

Mr Solomon Yue did a good job by raising the question.



Wan Chin, 2019-11-18:

Wan Chin: While solving the siege of the Polytechnic campus in Hong Kong, we need to see farther. Because the communists set up the plot of asking the students to stay in campus castle to fight and the communists order police to siege. It's a fake war, but suffering of kids there is real.

Let's see farther. End scenario for General Secretary Xi Jinping of CCP. Prospects for Hong Kong and China's prosperity and cooperation with USA.

1. First round of USA-China trade agreement will be signed, finally.

2. Xi's severe breach of human rights in Xinjiang (East Turkistan) and Hong Kong released and confirmed.

3. Xi committed serious political mistake while dragging about the trade deal (which is fair and good for both!), hurting China's economy and jeopardizing HK's autonomy and economy and destroying the solidarity between the Chinese and the Uighurs. This is fatal political mistake, even with CCP standard. Any leaders making such mistake must step down.

4. Xi is ousted. He steps down and a more pragmatic leadership of CCP come to power. Leading China's second round of open policy and democracy, starting with the SAR of Hong Kong. China will be open, free, gradually democratic and vibrant in culture, even better than 1980s.

5. After the democratisation of HK, with joint agreement with China, HK will run Chartered Cities in China with help of US-led consultancy and investment. In these HK chartered cities, common law of HK will be practised to protect property rights and human rights. Money and talents will come back to China. Free access to press and internet allowed. Culture life and confidence will be revived in HK and China, huge consumption for US goods and products!

6. General Secretary Xi is hindering the second open policy for China to promoting his own dictatorship plan of China Dream, which will lead China into a dead end and hamper regional stability of Asia.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-18

Wan Chin: It's a fake war in Hong Kong. The summoners are commies. The suppressors are commies. The cause is fake. But the victims are real, the dead bodies are real.
Sorry to have bothered you, President Trump. But your men in Hong Kong are partially, if not crucially, responsible for this fake war.

Wan Chin, 2019-11-19

Wan Chin: Hong Kong at the eve of Fall of Saigon. Please relax. Unless US government mis-responded to the fake war in HK, this won't happen.

The US government, in the Clinton and Obama adminstration, wrongly chose the Pan-Democrats in HK as opposition party to mis-represent the Hong Kong people. Mis-representation led to mis-response. The Pan-Democrats, unfortunately, are the absentee middle-class who earn their money in the China trade and cross-border professional services serving Corporate China and seek retirement in USA and Canada. They collaborate with China, earn big money and pretend to fight, which is somehow similar to the Clinton and Obama administration and the Wall Street Corporate America in the past China engagement policy.
During these months of freedom campaign, I advocated safe and an economically non-harming "Be Water" campaign, while the Pan-Democrats and their opinion leaders urge people to set up road-blocks and fight in encirclement, which end up in trapping protesters for police arrests and maltreatment. Economy and consumer confidence in HK suffered owing to such wrong tactics and fake war.

China is procrastinating the trade deal with USA and desperately wanted a human rights agenda to lock up President Trump and spoil his re-election to office in 2020. Xinjiang won't work too much, as compared to the metropolitan Hong Kong. So police keep bombarding the CBDs (Central Hong Kong two days ago and Tsimshatsui last night) and hitting foreign expats and journalists to make up a drama. I wish the US government stay calm and keep pressurizing China through trade measures and other economic sanctions.
When we Hongkongers raised the American flag, that's the beginning of a beautiful friendship. Good friends understand each other. State Secretary Mike Pompeo comforted us a lot by giving a great support for us in his recent speech on HK. A big thank you. And a good hug for President Trump.



年宵


吞聲忍語——日治時期香港人的集體回憶:

日治政府亦因此延長港九多處年宵露天市場的作業時間,以春節的喜慶來點綴飽經戰火洗禮的香港社會。

春秋筆法


陳雲:林鄭月娥會見負責港澳事務的中國副總理韓正之前,在上海被習近平截停,率先面談。
陪見的有主導香港事務的外交首長楊潔篪和王毅與在四中全會之後強調「公安姓黨」公安部長趙克志。

(陳雲仿孔子《春秋》筆法,報導完畢。)

果然是春秋筆法, 一字褒貶.

郁達夫譯徒然草


郁達夫選譯兼好法師徒然草數段

序 段

信無聊的自然,弄筆硯以終永日,將印上心來的無聊瑣事,渾渾沌沌,寫將下來,希奇古怪,倒著實也有點兒瘋狂的別趣。

第一段

卻說,人生斯世,誰也免不了有萬千的願望。天皇位居至尊,實在是誠惶誠恐,高不敢攀。皇族的枝枝葉葉,決非人間的凡種,其尊其貴,也是當然。一人之下,萬人之上的攝政關白的行狀,更可不必提起;就是尋常的朝貴,凡由天子敕賜隨身護衛之臣的,都是尊嚴無比之屬,他們的子子孫孫,即使淪落,也總帶有些嬌羞的風趣,別著幽閒。自此以下,若隨他風雲的身分,逢時得令之輩,則雖裝得滿面驕矜,自鳴得意,由旁邊的冷眼看來,可真一無足取了。

(攝政關白:朝廷重鎮,以現代官制來翻譯,應是執掌全權的內閣;輔成王的周公,挾天子的曹操,庶幾可以當得。)

像做僧侶的法師那麼不為人所欣羡的人,世上原也很少。清少納言所說的「被人家視同木屑」之話,真是一點兒也不錯。假令聲勢喧赫,即使做了有官有位的紅僧,也不見得怎麼樣的了不得;正如增賀聖僧之所言,徒囿役於世上的名聞,得毋背于佛爺的御教!不過一心專念,修道棄世之人,倒也頗有為我們所欣羡的地方。

(清少納言:《枕草紙》的作家,清原元輔之女,仕一條天皇皇后定子,與日本有數之女詩人紫式部齊名。增賀:參議橘恒平之子,系大和多武峰的高僧。)

容貌丰采的超群,原是凡人都在願望的盛事。發言有致而趣味津津,話不多談而使人相對不厭,豈非很好。至若外貌堂堂而語言乏味,終於被人看出下劣的本性,那又是痛心的恨事了。

人品容貌原是天生成的,可是人的心,卻為什麼不可以賢之更賢,精益求精地改移呢?本來是容貌根性都好的人,若沒有了才學,交錯入人品不高、容顏卑惡的群中,並且還更比他們不上而被壓倒的時候,這才真是意外的醜事。

真正的可貴可慕之事,是有用的實學、文字的製作、和歌的賦詠、音樂弦管的才能、故實禮義的精通與夫朝廷典禮的諳熟,要使都足為人家的模範,才有意思。手筆佳靈而流利,歌聲嘹亮而中拍,逢人勸酒,謙讓有加,一若非辭不可的苦事,但結果倒也能傾吞下三杯兩盞的男子,才是真真的好漢。

第三段

凡百事情樣樣堪能,而獨不解好色的男子,實在是太孤冷的人,大約同一隻玉杯的無底,是一樣的風情。要每被晨霜朝露所淋沾,彷徨漂泊無定所,心懷著父母的訓誡、社會的譏訕,時時刻刻方寸不安,並且還要常常也成獨宿的孤眠,而不能安睡終宵者,才覺得其味無窮。可是,也不要一味的惑於女色,由女人看來覺得也不是輕易可以到手的男子,那才是更妙更佳的神技。

第五段

並非是為了身逢不幸,沉入憂思,即使毫無遠慮地落髮而為僧,但將禪門常閉,使人不知主人的在否,別無期待,只一個人朝朝暮暮在那裡過活下去,就此行徑,豈不甚美。善哉顯基中納言之言,他似乎這麼的說過:「要並無罪名,而在極邊的徒流之所,看天而玩月。」這話實在說得不錯。

(顯基中納言:即權中納言源顯基,為大納言俊賢之次子,仕後一條天皇,皇崩後,在大原出家為僧。)

第六段

無論己身高貴的人,更況且並不足道的常人,總還是沒有兒子的好。前中書王、九條的太政大臣、花園的左大臣都願意沒有子孫。大鏡的作者,也借世繼翁所談的故事,評染殿的大臣說:「子孫總是沒有的好,後代不振,實在是一件壞事。」聖德太子於生前築生壙的時候,據說也曾這樣的說過:「這兒把我切了,那兒把我開斷了,我原不想有子孫的。」

(前中書王即兼明親王,醍醐天皇的皇子,善詩文,仕至中務卿,故曰中書。九條太政大臣即藤原伊通,仕二條天皇,有二子,俱早歿。花園左大臣即源有仁,輔仁親王之子,曆仕鳥羽、崇德、近衛的三朝,保延二年進位左大臣。聖德太子,用明天皇的長子,入承推古天皇,為皇太子,日本佛教的興隆,實聖德太子一人之功。)

第七段

愛宕山野的朝露,鳥部山麓的青煙,若永無消失的時候。為人在世,也像這樣的長活下去,那人生的風趣,還有什麼?正唯其人世之無常,才感得到人生有味。

統觀生物,只有人最長命。蜉蝣不知朝暮,夏蟬不識春秋。胸懷曠達,悠悠而但過一年,也已經是無上的妙境了。貪多無厭,雖過千年,也不過像是一宵的短夢。在這個住不到頭的世界,徒贏得了衰遲的醜相,終於有何益處?壽命長了,恥辱也多。最多是活上了將近四十而死,那便是頂漂亮的處置。

過了這一個年紀,就再也沒有自慚形穢之心,只想在人前露面,直到夕陽的晚境,還愛子孫,預測著兒孫的騰達飛黃,徒深貪圖苟活的心思,凡百的情趣,一概不知,老年醜態,就將畢露了。

第八段

人世上惑人之事,無如色欲,人心真是愚妄的東西。香料的熏添,本屬假暫,明知衣上的濃香,為時不久,但對於難耐的芳馨,也必勢難自禁,少不得鹿衝心頭。久米仙人見了水邊洗物的女人白腿,便失神通,實在是為了手足皮膚的純美,肥白光鮮,不同凡豔,他的從空下墜,也是應該。

(注)元亨釋書十八:久米仙人,和州上郡人。入深山,學仙法,食松葉,服薜荔。一旦騰空,飛過故里,會婦人以足踏浣衣,其脛甚白,忽生染心,即時墜落。

周作人徒然草抄


周作人選譯吉田兼好徒然草十四段
1925年4月語絲

一、憂患(原第五段)

有遭逢憂患感到悲傷的人,不必突然發心剃髮出家,還不如若存若亡的閉著門別無期待地度日更為適宜。顯基中納言曾云,願得無罪而賞謫居之月,其言至有味。


二、長生(原第七段)

倘仇野之露沒有消時,鳥部山之煙也無起時,人生能夠常住不滅,恐世間將更無趣味。人世無常,倒正是很妙的事罷。

遍觀有生,唯人最長生。蜉蝣及夕而死,夏蟬不知春秋。倘若優遊度日,則一歲的光陰也就很是長閑了。如不知厭足,雖過千年亦不過一夜的夢罷。在不能常住的世間活到老醜,有什麼意思?語云壽則多辱,即使長命,在四十以內死了最為得體。過了這個年紀便將忘記自己的老醜,想在人群中胡混,到了暮年還溺愛子孫,希冀長壽得見他們的繁榮,執著人生,私欲益深,人情物理都不復了解,至可歎息。


三、中年(原第百一十三段)

年過四十而猶未能忘情於女色的人,若只蘊藏胸中,亦非得已,但或形諸言詞,戲談男女隱密以及人家閨閫,則與年歲不相應,至不雅觀。大抵難看難聽的事有這幾種:老人混在青年中間,妄說趣話;卑賤人說世間權貴和自己如何要好;窮人好酒宴,鋪張宴客。


四、女色(原第八段)

惑亂世人之心者莫過於色欲。人心真是愚物。色香原是假的,但衣服如經過熏香,雖明知其故,而一聞妙香,必會心動。相傳久米仙人見浣女脛白,失其神通,實在女人的手足肌膚豔美肥澤,與別的顏色不同,這也是至有道理的話。

(案《元亨釋書》卷十八云,久米仙人者和州上郡人,入深山學仙方,食松葉,服薜荔。一日騰空飛過古里,會婦人以足踏浣衣,其脛甚白,忽生染心,即時墜落。)


五、訶欲

女人豐美的頭髮特別容易引人注意。人品性質,只聽說話的樣子,就是隔著障壁也可以知道。有時單是尋常起居動作,亦足以迷亂人心。即使女已心許,卻總還不能安睡,毫不顧惜自己,能受不可忍的苦辛,這都是為戀愛的緣故。愛著之道根深源遠。六塵之樂雖多皆可厭離,其中唯有色欲難以抑止,老幼智愚莫不如是。故諺曰,以女人髮作繩能繫大象;以女人屐作笛能招秋鹿。所當自戒,應恐懼謹慎者,即此惑溺也。

(案《大威德陀羅尼經》云,乃至以女人髮作綱維,香象能繫,況丈夫輩。吹笛引鹿係日本傳說。)


六、好色(原第三段)

男子雖多才藝而不知好色,至為寂寞,殆知玉卮之無當也。濡染霜露,彷徨道塗,父母之訓誡,世人之譏評,悉不暇聽聞,儘自胡思亂想,然而終於仍多獨宿,夜不成寐,如此生涯,至有風趣。但亦非一味遊蕩,須不為女子所輕,斯乃為佳耳。


七、獨居

妻子為物蓋非男子所應有者。聽人說是永久獨居,最為愉快。偶聞人言某已入贅,或某娶某女,已同棲了,令人對於男子生卑下想。如娶尋常女子,人將輕蔑曰,「這樣的女子也好,所以便配合了。」如女稍佳,又曰,「男子一定非常珍重,當作菩薩供養罷了!」若真是美人,人言亦愈有因。且管理家務的女子至可惋惜,有了兒童,提攜愛撫尤為煩苦。男子死後,留女子剪髮為尼,漸即老醜,是即在死後尚極不愉快也。無論如何女人,朝夕相對,恐亦將厭足疏遠,在女子亦當感到冷淡。不如分居,男子時往聚會,雖歷時久遠,交情可以永續。偶爾往訪,輒復留連,亦殊有情趣。

(案這所說的辦法與近來藹理斯夫人所主張的「半分離的結婚」semi-detached marriage相似,不過更是浪漫的罷了。《徒然草》第二百四十段中反對父母之命媒妁之言所結合的夫婦,他說「不知他們第一句是說什麼話?」,這真是大家都想問的一件事。他以為只有情人團聚,「互說往昔相思的苦辛,約會的艱難,這才有不盡的情話。」此節更反對結婚,老法師的波希米人性質益發現無遺了。)


八、飲酒(原第百七十五段)

在現世間飲酒則多過失,喪財,招病。雖云酒為百藥之長,百病皆從酒生;雖云酒可忘憂,醉人往往想起過去憂患至於痛哭。又在來世喪失智慧,破壞善根,有如火燒,增惡破戒,當墜地獄。佛說,與人飲酒者五百世無手。

酒雖如是可厭,但亦有難捨之時。月夜、雪朝、花下,從容談笑,偶飲數杯,能增情趣。獨坐無聊,友朋忽來,便設小酌,至為愉快。……冬日在小室中,支爐煮菜,與好友相對飲酒,舉杯無算,亦快事也。


九、自然之美(原第廿一段)

無論何時,望見明月便令人意快。或云,無物比月更美。又一人與之爭曰,露更有味。其事殊有趣。其實隨時隨地無有一物不美妙也。

花月無論矣,即風亦足動人。沖岩激石,清溪之流水,其景色亦至佳美。曾見詩云:「沅湘月夜東流去,不為愁人住少時」,覺得很有興味。嵇康曾云,「遊山澤,觀魚鳥,心甚樂之。」在遠離人居水草清佳之地,獨自逍遙,可謂最大之悅樂。


十、秋月(原第二百一十二段)

秋月特佳。或云,月總是如此,不能辨別,殊乏雅趣。


十一、讀書(原第十三段)

獨坐燈下,披卷誦讀,與古為友,是最上的慰安。其書則《文選》之妙文,《白氏文集》,《老子》之書,《南華》之篇,以及此土學者所作,在古文學中多有妙品。


十二、法顯的故事(原第八十四段)

或聞法顯三藏往天竺,見故鄉之扇而悲,又臥病思得漢食,曰如此高人,奈何示弱於異國。弘融僧都卻稱歎曰,真是多情的和尚。此言殊無法師氣,一何蘊藉乃爾。


十三、愛生物(原第百廿一段)

家畜中有牛馬,加以羈絆,雖亦可憫,唯係日用必需之物,亦屬無可如何。狗能防守,視人為勝,也不可缺,但他家多畜此物,偶不畜養別無妨礙。此外鳥獸皆屬無用之物。禁走獸於檻中,加以鎖繫,剪飛禽之羽翼,閉諸樊籠,使其懷念天雲,眷念山野,憂悶悵望,無時或已。設身處地,不能忍受,有情之人豈忍以此為樂乎?虐待生物,用以娛目,此桀紂之心耳。王子猷愛鳥,但觀林中飛鳴之鳥以為逍遙之友伴,不捕而淩虐之也。珍禽奇獸不育於國,《尚書》亦云。


十四、人生大事(原第百廿三段)

為無益之事而費時日者,謂為愚人可,謂為謬人亦可。對於君國應為之事已多,其餘暇日無幾。人所不得不營求者,一食二衣三住居。人生大事不過此三者。不饑,不寒,不為風雨所侵,閒靜度日,即為安樂。但人皆不免有病,如為疾病所犯,其苦痛殊不易忍,故醫藥亦不可忽。三者之上,加藥成四。凡不能得此四事者為貧,四事無缺者為富,四事之外更有所營求者為貪。如四事節儉,無論何人當更無不足之慮也。


附譯後記:上邊十四篇中有九篇係去年舊稿,其餘均係新譯。原文雖係古文,我卻不想用古文去譯他,但終因此多少無意地夾進一點文言去——這個我也不復改去,因為要用純粹白話來譯也似乎是不大可能的。一九二五年三月六日譯校竟記。

Labels:

所謂赴台自首


熱血時報 2019-10-18 日 報道:

陳同佳去信林鄭稱願到台灣自首 冀港府協助安排手續

政府晚上發新聞稿,指行政長官林鄭月娥今日(10月18日)收到現時因清洗黑錢罪在香港監獄服刑的陳同佳來信,表示已經決定刑滿後就其涉嫌的殺人案到台灣自首,並請特區政府協助安排相關手續。

誰勸他的?


熱血時報同日 另一報道:

據悉陳同佳願赴台灣自首,警方稱可以做的經已做了

觸發反修例風波的台灣殺人案疑犯陳同佳,因同時觸犯洗黑錢罪在港判囚,據了解他將於下周三(10月23日)刑滿出獄。聖公會教省秘書長 管浩鳴 引述陳同佳指,願到台灣自首。他又指說陳同佳經已簽署對台灣的律師委託書,並非單純口頭承諾。

管浩鳴, 北京市政協委員也


Wan Chin 當晚在 Facebook 批評:

陳雲:他自己去台灣就可以,毋須港府安排,製造引渡的成例。一個人要幾邪惡愚昧,才會被人安排做這些東西?反正去台灣伏法都是一死了之,為什麼要陷害香港呢?

很多不明道理的人在稱讚自首的事,我認為邪惡到極。假如台灣那邊接受了香港的引渡,後患無窮。

中共對於製造變相引渡的成例, 真是死心不惜.

* * *

原來台灣在 2019-10-17 日已發了 公告.
(我相信他們當時已知悉所謂陳同佳自願赴台投案一事)

中華民國法務部新聞發布

資料發布日期:108/10/17

據外界消息指稱港女命案陳姓嫌犯近日即將在香港另案刑滿出獄,有關港女命案之處理,本部說明如下:

本案發生後,負責偵辦之臺灣士林地方檢察署,先後於民國107年3月、4月間,透過本部經由大陸委員會向香港政府提出2次司法互助協請調查取證,迄未獲港方回應;而涉案被告即香港居民陳O佳於案發後已潛逃回港,經上開地檢署發布通緝,透過本部經由陸委會向港府提出遣送被告來臺接受偵審,亦未獲回覆

有鑑於此,衡酌本案被告及被害人均為香港居民,據悉香港檢警機關也已掌握諸多未提供我方之在港證據,並懷疑被告可能係在香港即預謀犯案,香港非無管轄權;此外,被告所犯涉嫌殺人之重大刑案屬於萬國公罪,香港檢警機關亦應依照其司法程序,持續積極偵辦,以還給被害人及其家屬公道。

本部也藉此正式呼籲港方秉持追訴殺人犯罪之執法立場,在陳姓嫌犯另案刑滿釋放前,積極續押追訴,我方將在對等、尊嚴及互惠之基礎上,迅速提供本案在臺相關證據,俾使港方得以充分掌握臺港兩地全案事證,以查明事實真相,依法追究刑責,實現公平正義。

言下之意, 你莫當我堂堂中華民國政府是儍瓜.

果不其然, 台灣早知所謂赴台自首之事. 新頭殼newtalk 2019-10-21 日報道:

黃承國:9月底帶管浩鳴會徐國勇 盼談陳同佳投案

對於帶香港聖公會教省秘書長管浩鳴去見內政部長徐國勇,國策顧問黃承國今(21)日受訪表示,他之前並不認識管,這是朋友幫忙聯繫的,9月底管浩鳴來台要理律事務所安排陳同佳投案前,想先事前能跟台灣政府進一步溝通。

* * *

回頭看熱血時報所引述的 香港政府 2019-10-18 日新聞公告:

台灣殺人案疑犯自願到台自首
2019年10月18日(星期五) 香港時間22時17分

行政長官今日收到現時因清洗黑錢罪在香港監獄服刑的陳同佳的來信,表示決定刑滿後就他涉嫌的殺人案到台灣自首,並請特區政府協助安排相關手續。

台灣當局去年12月3日向陳同佳發出通緝令,並表示陳同佳涉及罪行的追訴權時效為30年。台灣刑事警察局今日收到香港警務處的函件,函件清楚轉達陳同佳自首的意願,同時向台方表示港方會協助陳同佳作出相關安排,並樂意向台方提供一切所需的合法可行協助。

特區政府表示,在陳同佳的刑事檢控方面,律政司並無足以控告陳同佳在台灣涉嫌殺人的證據。經充分和全面考慮香港警方調查及搜集所得的證據後,律政司控告陳同佳在香港干犯洗黑錢罪。陳同佳被定罪及判監29個月,現時正在服刑。

對於陳同佳在台灣涉嫌的罪行,香港法庭並無管轄權,香港有關當局也不可能將陳同佳續押或向他追訴他涉嫌在台灣所犯的罪行。

對照台灣的預先回應, 新聞稿寫成這個樣子, 原因就足已明白了.


2019-10-19 日, 熱血時報 跟進報道:

台灣刑事局已接獲香港來函 得悉陳同佳願赴台自首意願

台灣刑事警察局今日(10月19日)表示,昨晚收到港方傳真致函,內容轉達陳同佳自首意願,港方會提供合法且必要協助云云。刑事局指,由於過去無相關案例,會持續與相關單位討論及研究。

港府言必稱合法, 何其心虛.

台灣收到正式知會後, 馬上採取應對措施. 自由時報同日報道:

港女命案兇嫌管制入境 「不可能讓港府為所欲為」

據透露,移民署已把陳同佳及勸說其來台投案、身兼北京巿政協委員的牧師管浩鳴註記管制,他們並無法順利入境。我方堅持要求港府在願與我方司法合作、彰顯司法正義的基礎下,把完整罪證交給我方,才會讓陳同佳等人入境,「不可能讓港府為所欲為」。

又, 自由時報同日報道:

港女命案凶嫌「被投案」?被懷疑企圖「一人救全港府」

一名熟知香港法令的檢察官表示,港府向來自視甚高,而今陳同佳將出獄,港府竟主動發布新聞稿,要把自己國民送到他國受審,姿態低到連法務部都質疑「已放棄司法主權」,耐人尋味。

曾任檢察官的律師翁偉倫表示,基於人類「趨吉避凶」天性,毫無理由來台受審;他認為,最有可能的是政治壓力迫使他出面扛下「送中條例」禍首,企圖「一人救全港府」!


受到台灣質疑, 港府 2019-10-20 日發聲明辯解. 熱血時報報道:

港府否認陳同佳「被自首」 冀台方務實及積極接收

就台灣殺人案疑犯陳同佳打算赴台自首一事,特區政府今日(10月20日)晚上發聲明,強調陳同佳純粹出於自願。對於有指「被自首」,甚至涉及政治操作,政府指控完全失實。


2019-10-21 日, 台灣陸委會回應港府聲明. 熱血時報報道:

陸委會斥港府背離事實混淆視聽 促務實面對台方請求

針對香港政府有關台灣殺人案的聲明,台灣陸委會作出反擊,指港府宣稱陳同佳「自願自首」,但從宣布的時間點,宣稱勸服陳投案的相關人士及其背景,與種種不合常理的情節,乃至港府和陸媒等配合一致的說詞和操作,都可輕易看出這是有背後政治力量精心操作的投案安排,認為港府聲明完全無法釋疑。

......陸委會認為,這樣的政治操作無疑是沒有「送中條例」的送中實踐,矮化台灣主權,也破壞司法正義與人權,台灣絕對不可能接受,更不可能配合操作。

台灣行政院長蘇楨昌當日受訪時說得更明白.自由時報報道:

陳同佳案》非常詭異!蘇貞昌︰絕不會陷入中國圈套

蘇揆說,林鄭月娥後面是中國,企圖用把嫌犯送台灣,要讓她的送中合理化......殺港女這嫌犯在香港若出獄就自由自在,怎不在香港過好日子,突然之間說要來台灣面對殺人罪的審判?這不符人性、常理;從國家安全國家主權,我們會嚴格把關,守住台灣安全。


問題是, 如果港府硬送他上飛機赴台又如何? 自由時報同日報道:

藍委問若陳同佳出現在桃園機場 徐國勇:當然抓起來

〔記者呂伊萱/台北報導〕港女命案兇嫌陳同佳本週將出獄、可能來台投案。國民黨立委許毓仁今天詢問內政部,如果陳同佳出現在桃園機場,會不會逮捕?內政部長徐國勇答說,「如果在台灣當然抓起來啊」。

事情留下伏線.

* * *

台灣執政民進黨備受在野黨國民黨攻擊,前總統國民黨馬英九、前副總統民進黨呂秀蓮也批斥蔡英文總統放棄司法主權.
自由時報 2019-10-21
政府拒陳同佳投案 國民黨︰民進黨沉浸選舉操作氛圍
自由時報 2019-10-22
不滿陳同佳案蔡政府發言 馬英九哽咽:我也是2個女兒的爸爸
中國時報 2019-10-22
呂秀蓮批蔡英文 懦弱如林鄭


Wan Chin 2019-10-21 Facebook 從法權、主權、外交層面, 分析了整個事件:

陳雲:陳同佳案的司法管轄權(法權)、主權與外交策略。這種複雜程度,非常挑戰行政人員的判斷力。雖然不會怎麼樣,但留下話柄,後患無窮。

......現在由港府用中國政協押送回去台灣審理,就當作台灣在香港代理之下的中國主權控制之下的領土,將犯人發還台灣審理,香港/中國佔了上風,而且用滿清那種欽差大人、八府巡按押送犯人返回原籍審理那種氣焰,好像康熙皇帝派施琅搭飛機取台灣。台灣要是接了人,是奇恥大辱。

帖文得到台灣三立, 自由時報等媒體引述.

Wan Chin 2019-10-22 再於 facebook 就主權、法權問題補充說明:

陳雲:陳同佳在台灣嫌疑犯法,一旦進入了台灣的司法管轄區,台灣必須法辦,但不宜接收港方正式或非正式的押解安排,因為涉及主權問題。

台灣實然放棄了在中國大陸的主權訴求但中共一直堅持在台的主權訴求,中台並未終止敵對作戰狀態,香港特別行政區的自治權也在近年受到國際廣泛質疑(特別是美國的質疑),港府對台的行為,無疑可以當作中國主權的代理人來看待。

(按:跨越國境引渡犯人是主權政府之間的安排,涉及主權問題,目前港府在發動逃犯移交條例,在中港澳台方面互相移交犯人,是單方面認為中港澳台屬於中國統一主權)

至於法權,香港在修訂逃犯引渡條例之後,法權被北京干擾,變得不可靠,香港的法權發言人(警方)與香港的實然主權的發言人(特首)的說辭互相衝突,香港政府的行為在發動逃犯移交條例修訂之後已經變得不可靠,台方不能貿然與香港特別行政區這種政府在高度政治化的陳同佳案件上採取司法互助。


2019-10-22 日. 台灣執政黨終於反守為攻. 熱血時報 報道

台灣陸委會致函港府 將派員到港押解陳同佳

台灣殺人案疑犯陳同佳明日(10月23日)將於壁屋刑滿出獄,台灣陸委會表示,今午已透過既有管道,致函及致電港府,將派員赴香港押解陳同佳到台受審。


港府凌晨發出的聲明. 熱血時報 2019-10-23 日報道:

港府:台灣無權派員到港押解陳同佳

對於台灣政府表示希望派員來港,將陳同佳押解到台灣,特區政府深夜發聲明,認為這等於跨境執法,不尊重香港的司法管轄權,完全不能接受。


次日早晨蔡英文發言. 熱血時報 2019-10-23 日報道:

台灣伸張司法正義伸張主權 蔡英文:港府不要迴避

台灣總統蔡英文今早(10月23日)對陳同佳案表示,這是一個受通緝的凶嫌,只有逮捕,無所謂自首。現在做的每件事都是在伸張司法正義,伸張主權,這就是國家主權,請香港政府不要迴避此事。

蔡英文上午在金門表示,加害人跟受害人都是香港公民,也一再強調不會放棄其管轄權,既然香港政府不願行使管轄權,替受害的香港人伸張正義,就由中華民國台灣處理;又指後續會持續要求香港政府提供司法協助,尤其相關事證提供,請香港政府不要迴避此事,很多人也都會要求香港政府負起責任。

港府宣稱陳同佳今天出獄後,將協助他來台投案;陸委會透過既有管道,致函、致電港府,擬派員赴香港押解陳同佳來台受審,但遭港府拒絕。

熱血時報同日報道:

台灣內政部:並非限制陳同佳入境

台灣殺人案疑犯陳同佳今早(10月23日)已於壁屋出獄,針對港府凌晨發出聲明,指稱「台方若願意處理陳的自首,應立即取消對陳的入境管制,才不會令通緝令自相矛盾」,台灣內政部次長陳宗彥表示,港府的說法不符事實。

陳宗彥說明,由於政府必須掌握陳同佳的行蹤,因此對陳同佳與其預定陪同人員註記禁止網簽,必須臨櫃申請,並非限制其入境。

Sigh No More


from Much Ado About Nothing (1993)
Composed by Patrick Doyle

(youtube) David Snell (2), Brutal Heidi


Sigh no more, ladies, sigh no more,
Men were deceivers ever;
One foot in sea, and one on shore,
To one thing constant never.
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blith and bonny,
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into Hey nonny, nonny.

Sing no more ditties, sing no more
Of dumps so dull and heavy;
The fraud of men was ever so,
Since summer first was leavy.
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blith and bonny,
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into Hey nonny, nonny.


Other versions: RJS Stevens's, Joss Whedon's

Labels:

Aeneid, lines 16--43


Virgil's Aeneid (David Ferry's translation)

There was an ancient city known as Carthage
(Settled by men from Tyre), across the sea
And opposite to Italy and the mouth
Of the Tiber river; very rich, and fierce,
Experienced in warfare. Juno, they say,
Loved Carthage more than any other place
In the whole wide world, more even than Samos.
Here's where she kept her chariot and her armor.
It was her fierce desire, if fate permitted,
That Carthage should be chief city of the world.
But she had heard that there would come a people,
Engendered of Trojan blood, who would someday
Throw down the Tyrian citadel, a people
Proud in warfare, rulers of many realms,
Destined to bring down Libya. Thus it was
That the Parcae's turning wheel foretold the story.

Fearful of this and remembering the old
War she had waged at Troy for her dear Greeks,
And remembering too her sorrow and her rage
Because of Paris's insult to her beauty,
Remembering her hatred of his people,
And the honors paid to ravished Ganymede---
For all these causes her purpose was to keep
The Trojan remnant who'd survived the Greeks
And pitiless Achilles far from Latium,
On turbulent waters wandering, year after year,
Driven by fates across the many seas.

So formidable the task of founding Rome.

Aeneid, lines 1--15


Virgil's Aeneid (David Ferry's translation)


I sing of arms and the man whom fate had sent
To exile from the shores of Troy to be
The first to come to Lavinium and the coasts
Of Italy, and who, because of Juno's
Savage implacable rage, was battered by storms
At sea, and from the heavens above, and also
By tempests of war, until at last he might
Bring his gods to Latium, and build there his town
From which would come the Alban Fathers and
The lofty walls of Rome. Muse, tell me
The cause why Juno the queen of heaven was so
Aggrieved by what offense against her power,
To send this virtuous faithful hero out
To perform so many labors, confront such dangers?

Can anger like this be, in immortal hearts?

Chin and Cheng to US Congress (2019)


An Open Letter to All Members of the United States Congress on Upcoming Legislations Regarding Hong Kong

October 1, 2019

Some compare Hong Kong to former West Berlin, which was triumphant in 1990. We may foresee Hong Kong as Saigon of former South Vietnam, which fell in 1975, if legislations mentioned below are passed, but not forcefully enforced, and eternal vigilance is not maintained.

Dr. Hon. Cheng Chung-tai and Dr. Chin Wan-kan are writing to The United States Congress to set out what they consider the issues it may wish to prioritize as follow ups of the upcoming legislations of “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” (H.R.3289, S.1838), “Hong Kong Policy Reevaluation Act of 2019” (S.1824), “Placing Restrictions on Teargas Exports and Crowd Control Technology to Hong Kong Act” ( H.R.4270), and possible armament of “United States–Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992” (P.L. no. 102-383m 106 Stat. 1448).

First of all, we are deeply appreciative of all the Members of the United States Congress who support toward the freedom and democratic causes of Hong Kong, and have already made up their minds to vote “aye” for all the above motions.

—Why we have come down to this?—

For the Senators and Representatives who are still undecided on the four Bills and one Resolution regarding Hong Kong issues. We would like to point out that:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has already declared 1984 “Sino-British Joint Declaration” as “void and only covered the period from the signing in 1984 until the handover in 1997”, and repeatedly violates its own “Hong Kong Basic Law” (the most glaring example at the moment is to do with Article 28, which states that “No Hong Kong resident shall be subjected to arbitrary or unlawful arrest, detention or imprisonment. Arbitrary or unlawful search of the body of any resident or deprivation or restriction of the freedom of the person shall be prohibited. Torture of any resident or arbitrary or unlawful deprivation of the life of any resident shall be prohibited”). Both the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law should be regarded as a Social Contract between China and the people of Hong Kong, while the former is an international agreement, and acts as a test of character for Post-Maoist China, which they fail miserably at the moment. Especially it is increasingly clear that Xi Jinping is pursuing Neo-Maoist, Pan-Sino Chauvinist (which is as toxic as Pan-Germanism in around one century ago), totalitarian policies assisted by cutting edge surveillance, AI and Big Data technologies, and taking advantage of “restore Law and Order” pretext. Hong Kong will not be exempted.

The ongoing crisis of Hong Kong is not an isolated incident. Our predicament is at first, one of the prices of Cold War Triumph over Soviet Union, then thirty years of the United States’ miscalculation of PRC’s strategic intention, and the subsequent “Engagement Policy”. The former made 1997 Handover possible, while the later made Hong Kong’s Democratic and Autonomy aspiration an under-supported, long and desperate uphill struggle, as in the defense of Bataan Peninsula for three decades. Only recent Chinese Communist Party’s overreach on all fronts, and the US awakening on PRC’s true nature, give us a glimmer of hope.

—What is at stake?—

We would like to highlight several points to connect the dots, in order to reflect the gravity of the situation.

Earlier in November 2018, a Professor of National Defence University of People’s Liberation Army (PLA), who is also an active duty PLA Major General, said in a public speech that, according to Maoist Class Analysis, people of Hong Kong were “worst of the kind”, because one third of them was ex-Landlords who escaped from Land Reform, another one third escaped from the Great Leap Forward Movement (note: other Political Movements should be counted too), the rest of them was locally born with heavy British influence. The recent incidents will certainly strengthen his opinion. Hong Kong people who are unwilling to conform with CCP’s values could eventually receive Uyghurs-like treatments, or even a downright genocide. It should not be considered too far-fetched.
In December 2018, HKSAR’s Security Bureau sent seven high ranking officials to Xinjiang to “study counter-terrorism methods”. In January 2019, the Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu said that “everything we saw was humane”. The official urged people not to wear “colored glasses” and gleefully noted that the methods employed to suppress terrorism had succeeded because there “had been almost no real attacks in the past two years”. In other words, an almost word-for-word repetition of the official Communist Party line (see “Does John Lee have no shame?” by Stephen Vines at ejinsight.com on January 11, 2019).

Throughout the Summer of Discontent, Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF) (as did many pro-Communists) constantly called the protesters as “cockroaches”, no matter in internal groups in smartphone messaging apps or in intercom conversations (overheard by reporters in many occasions). As recent as 23 September, during a routine HKPF’s press briefing, Acting Senior Superintendent (Operations) of New Territories North Region Vasco Williams denied any instance of misconduct (referring to the back alley lynching of an elderly protester who dressed in yellow T-shirt and yellow vest by police officers), “You mentioned a video that showed what appeared to be an officer kicking a ‘yellow object’ on the ground,” Williams later feebly argued that he meant the image to be grainy and should not be taken as physical evidence. Yet it was another example of police’s dehumanization of protesters, as a psychological preparation for committing genocide.

For the reasons above, a basic moral obligation for all Congressmen to vote “aye” for all upcoming legislations regarding Hong Kong is totally sound and significant, so as to nip this early stage of humanitarian disaster in the bud.

—Overlooked war crimes of Hong Kong Police Force—

We would also want to bring one crucial point pertinent to “Placing Restrictions on Teargas Exports and Crowd Control Technology to Hong Kong Act” (H.R.4270):

HKPF’s Special Tactical Squad (STS), or more commonly known as “Raptors Team” by the locals, is a paramilitary task force or a crack unit which composes of senior instructors of Hong Kong Police College, elite members of Police Tactical Unit, famous Special Duties Unit, Counter Terrorism Response Unit, Airport Security Unit, and Railway Response Team which was set up just half a year ago. The units aforementioned were formed with Counter-Terrorism in mind and with special force-grade training. STS would only be assembled during civil unrest. In a nutshell, STS is similar to former Soviet/ CIS member states’ Ministry of Internal Affairs Special Forces, aiming at suppressing civil disturbances with iron fists.

Thus, STS’s heavy hand approach to protesters should be considered as war crimes and a major military dishonor among those special force trained members. STS weapons are almost exclusively NATO-origin. The aforementioned Counter-Terrorism units are likewise all having close co-operation relationships with NATO member nations. Considering the Security Bureau officials’ recent visit to Xinjiang, the bureau might have already passed on their technical and tactical know-hows to PLA, People’s Armed Police Force (PAP) and/ or other intelligence and security apparatus.

—Give them no quarters—

We are likewise aware that, some Hong Kong Pan-Democrat Legislators and famous Social Activists felt that, the US sanctions should concentrate on HKSAR officials, and refrain from invoking “Nuclear Option” (i.e. “United States–Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992”), for it will affect the livelihood of ordinary Hong Kong people greatly. While we should not recklessly put ordinary livelihood at risk, but the harsh realities are:

Since 1 September, there has been an unusual high count of suicide (over thirty), all of them were unilaterally declared by Hong Kong Police Force as “nothing suspicious”, while there were widespread allegations of serious tortures and sexual assaults against protesters at police stations and especially the remote San Uk Ling Holding Centre. Circumstantially, there are reasonable suspicions that those “suicide cases” may be fatalities of police retaliatory lynching and cover-up, since the authorities monopolize forensic investigations.

While it was extremely lucky that the Cold War was won without Nuclear Exchange, the Western Bloc Nuclear Deterrent kept the Free World generally safe and prosperous in the duration of the Cold War. For the same reason, a constant warning of the US withdrawing admission of Hong Kong unique status is still necessary to deter further transgressions of freedom and autonomy.

Keeping it in mind that if HKSAR or PRC government declares State of Emergency by invoking “Emergency Regulations Ordinance” or “Hong Kong Basic Law” Article 18, it will yield the same effect of “Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Ordinance 2019”, it should be deemed as one of the “tripwire causes” of the aforementioned “Nuclear Option”.

Moreover, the sanctions of “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” should not be just limited to HKSAR, HKPF, PRC leaders, former leaders, and high-ranking officials who contribute to this slippery slope of tyranny, but even middle to lower ranking functionaries, no matter from public or private sector, who commit “Banality of Evil”, and the last but not least, Triad members who carry out attacks against protesters (especially on 21 July in Yuen Long), should all be severely punished.

Since Xi Jinping is reverting to Maoist ideology and policies with a vengeance, it makes “One Country, Two Systems” more relevant and necessary for Hong Kong as ever. Since the “twenty-two-year implementation” was far from Hong Kongers’ satisfaction, and we are near to the half way point of the fifty-year timespan, all Congressional legislations regarding Hong Kong should explicitly state that they will not be expired by 2047. It would also deliver a clear message to PRC that, since the Engagement Policy fails to liberalize China as planned, the US will not accept further “Mainlandization” of Hong Kong. The original Classical Liberal traditions of Hong Kong should be preserved, and the illiberal measures since 1997 should be all rollbacked.

Back then during the Pacific War, when Hong Kong was under the yoke of ruthless rule by Imperial Japan for most of the territory. The United States Army Air Force and Navy launched multiples air strikes on military installations in Hong Kong, unavoidably, civilian casualties were resulted, but very few survivors held a grunge against the Americans, for they clearly knew who should really be blamed. We should view the current desperate situation in the same manner.

—Appeal to Americans—

Finally, we would like to have a few words to the American societies:

To American Conservatives: Citing a famous quote in the movie “The Usual Suspects”, “the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist”, the greatest trick the Chinese Communist Party ever pulled on Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 “southern tour” was convincing the world that they were not “Communists” anymore. In fact, they are still strictly Leninists in term of Party structure. Their brand of “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” is, in a nutshell, not Classical Laissez-faire Capitalism, but State Capitalism, whereas Umpires and Ballplayers rolled into one. For anyone, from Corporate America to ordinary folks, seeking business opportunities in China, there is an increasingly NO-win situation. While trade surplus of American’s Allies is mostly used for their domestic welfare programs, PRC use their trade surplus to vastly modernize their military, and their State Apparatus Sino-American relationship before 2016 was obviously not reciprocal, the changes afterward were long overdue, as did the current legislations about Hong Kong.

To American Liberals: You might have a tendency to doubt your own country’s heritage greatness, and show more appreciations toward other nations, while it could be a healthy antidote of excessive jingoism, PRC is not a variable alternative of Pax Americana. They suppressed Human Rights Lawyers, Feminist Activists, a BL erotica novelist, Uyghurs Muslims, Tibetan Buddhists, Christians, no matter official-sanctioned Churches or underground “Family Churches”, with equal rigor, they are against all segments of ideologies or Identity Politics which are not absolutely obedient to CCP.

Had nothing is done on Hong Kong, and if PRC surpasses USA and attains the number one superpower status, the current polarization of Western Politics will be rendered irrelevant, and what happen to us right now, will befall upon all of you.

Dr. Hon. Cheng Chung-tai
Dr. Chin Wan-kan

用詞宜慎


反擊/反抗, 非私了

淡定


呂坤所謂心靜是個見道的妙訣:

天地間真滋味, 唯靜者能嘗得出;
天地間真機括, 唯靜者能看得透;
天地間真情景, 唯靜者能題得破.
作熱鬧人, 說孟浪話, 豈無一得, 皆偶合也.

The frog problem


standupmaths, Can you solve The Frog Problem? (youtube)

Problem:

1. When the frog jumps it randomly chooses from one of the possible landing places.
2. The frog keeps jumping forwards until it crosses the river.
3. If the maximum is n jumps and the minimum is 1 jump to cross the river, what is the expected number of jumps?

The answer should be an explicit formula, not a non-recusive relation.
Someone said in the comments that the answer is the harmonic series.

Let E(n) be the expected number of jumps in where the frog has n possible spaces to jump to at the beginning. (i.e. n-1 lotus leaves and 1 spot for the opposite bank).
...
E(n) = 1/n + 1/(n-1) + 1/(n-2) + ... + 1

I cannot quite follow how he gets E(n) = 1/n * (1 + E(n-1)) + (n-1)/n * E(n-1), though I get the same answer E(n) = 1/n + E(n-1).

Here is my line of thought:

E1 = 1
E2 = 1/2*1 + 1/2*(1 + E1)
E3 = 1/3*1 + 1/3*(1 + E1) + 1/3*(1 + E2)
E(n) = 1/n*1 + 1/n*(1 + E1) + 1/n*(1 + E2) + ... + 1/n*(1 + E(n-1))

Grouping the terms we get
E(n) = 1 + 1/n*(E1 + E2 + ... E(n-2) + E(n-1))

Now let's look at E(n-1). Following the similar argument we have
E(n-1) = 1 + 1/(n-1)*(E1 + E2 + ... + E(n-2)), so
E1 + ... + E(n-2) = (n-1)*E(n-1) - (n-1)

Putting into E(n) we get E(n) = 1/n + E(n-1).

Penelope to Ulysses


From Ovid's Heroides, translated by Harold Isbell (1990):

Penelope to the tardy Ulysses:
do not answer these lines, but come, for
Troy is dead and the daughters of Greece rejoice.
But all of Troy and Priam himself
are not worth the price I've paid for victory.
How often I have wished that Paris
had drowned before he reached our welcoming shores.
If he had died I would not have been
compelled now to sleep in my cold bed
complaining always of the tiresome
prospect of endless nights and days spent working
like a poor woman at my tedious loom.

...

You are my refuge and my home, my husband.
Have a father's concern for your son;
let us see a son's concern for your father
who waits now for you to close his eyes.
Just remember, I was a young girl when you left;
if you came at once you would find an old woman.

* * *

Clare Pollard performs from her new translation of Ovid's Heroides
Phaedra to Hippolytus: (youtube)